Sink or Be Sunk

 SINK OR BE SUNK - IT'S NOW OR NEVER

US Navy gunboats vs. British Royal Navy, War of 1812

With less than a month to go before the Miss. State Bulldogs open the 2026 season with a home contest with the Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks (nee' NELU Indians) it feels like time to look ahead not just to the game, but to the season. It's talking season, when SEC Media Days have just occurred, and all of the preseason pundits are in full swing putting out and trying to speak into existence their preseason polls and picks. For us Bulldog fans, we're still unbeaten and unscored upon, and ready for the illusive "next year" ... but have the specter of the past 3 losing seasons and a total of 2 SEC wins lurking over our shoulders. This seems to be a "sink or be sunk"* year ... perhaps both for our coach and for our program. We know what we want, but what should we expect?

Expectations for 2026

As I begin my 70th season as a Miss. State fan, I know what I think (and I know what I hope). But what about you? A quick refresher: I've found that Bulldog fans tend to fall into 1 of 2 categories. The optimists are DOS (Dear Ole State) fans, who perennially strap on maroon-tinted glasses and expect the best, regardless of recent records or what non-MSU skeptics say ... they expect that each year just could be the "next year" we've all be waiting for. The pessimists are SOS (Same Old State) fans, who have been there, done that every year, and refuse to get their hopes up because they've had their hopes and dreams shattered too many times. To quote the iconic Rosanne Rosannadana of early SNL, "It's always something!" Don't get spoiled by this, but in keeping with the FCC Fairness Doctrine for this preseason edition only, I'll try to address both perspectives. (Think of it as having both Fox and MSNBC for Miss. State football.) But first let's establish a few of what Joe Friday of Dragnet would say are "just the facts, ma'am":

• Under Jeff Lebby, our first-time head coach, we have a record of 7 - 18 (1 - 15 in the SEC). 
• Lebby hired a new defensive coordinator, Zach Arnett, who has been successful here before, as well as 7 other new coaches. Three of his assistant coaches have had head coaching experience.
• In terms of continuity Bill Connelly of ESPN reports that MSU returns 48% of their production (44% of the offense and 52% of the defense) from last season, which ranks them 86th in the nation. We kept our elite players, Komario Taylor, Kelley Jones, and Isaac Smith.
• MSU has brought in 20 transfers, who rank 35th in the nation and 15th in the SEC in 247 transfer ratings. The focus seems to have been on offensive linemen and defensive backs. Several will be expected to help immediately ... or else.
• According to ESPN the Bulldogs' high school signing class for 2026 ranked 23rd in the nation and 11th in the SEC.
• Sophomore QB Kamario Taylor, after starting the last 2 games last season as a true freshman, will be the starter this season. He is probably the highest rated QB the Bulldogs have ever signed, and he has gotten lots of accolades from his performance at this summer's Manning QB Academy and from others such as legendary UAT coach and TV commentator Nick Saban. Expectations for him are high.
• MSU's schedule is expected to get a little easier with a schedule that ranks 8th or 9th in the SEC, lower than the 1st and 2nd of the past couple of years. Among the opponents for State are 5 teams ranked by all in the preseason Top 15 and a sixth in the Top 25.
• A survey of 5 popular services/publications who do preseason predictions for college football reveals that 4 (including the combined SEC Media) have picked MSU to finish not last, but 15th in the SEC. One wildly optimistic rag picked our 'Dogs to finish a lofty 13th. [Git them 'bells up!!]

I started to flip a coin to decide whether to do the DOS or SOS section first, but I remembered that Lebby always chooses to take the ball first (and other coaches who win the toss are usually happy to let him do so if they win the toss).  So we'll start with the DOS perspective, i.e., why some of us are looking ahead to this season with high expectations, but feel free to read that which corresponds to your own personal perspective of things MSU Maroon & White.

DOS View

• Lebby is in his 3rd season. He is figuring out what he's doing, as evidenced by his improvement from 2 - 10 to 5 - 8 last season.
• Arnett, not one of Lebby's inexperienced buddies, is in charge of the defense. 
  
  
  
• Kamario Taylor is The Man ... and that's coming from outside the Miss. State family!  Look at his stats from the 2 games he started last season. He's 6'4", 230 lbs. with an arm like a cannon, and he's mobile (a necessary trait for a QB playing behind the last 2 MSU offensive lines).
• Lebby has been good at assembling a talented crew of receivers at MSU in his first 2 seasons at MSU. Among those returning is Anthony Evans, who last season led State receivers in catches, was 2nd in receiving yardage, and 3rd in catches for TD's. New transfers from Missouri and Oklahoma with experience as starters have joined the receivers.
• Among the new 'Dog transfers are several very large humans on both the offensive and defensive lines. Both starters and depth are expected to have improved.
• Three of the top 4 rushers return, including the bruising Fluff Bothwell (although that sounds contradictory?!) and Komario, who was employed primarily as a runner in short yardage situations.  
  
• On defense the key returnees are Kelley Jones, a starter at cornerback who is expected to be a high draft choice, and Isaac Smith, a safety who in 2024 led the SEC in tackles.
• Special teams are in good hands with Kyle Ferrie, who last season coverted all of his PAT's and 85% of his FG attempts and is likely to set the MSU record for points scored in a career this season, and Ethan Pulliam, who ranked 3rd in the SEC with an average of 46.8 yds./punt.
• Although with 9 SEC games, no one will describe State's schedule as easy, I think most would say it's easier than the last 2 or 3. Unlike last year, I don't think any games against the proverbial unbeatable foes are at home (though certainly it's a longstanding tradition that we lose to UAT regardless of the site, unless perhaps our head coach is a former UAT player ... see: Sherrill, Jackie and Croom, Sylvester.)

SOS View

• Nothing Lebby has done at MSU has given us a solid reason to believe he can field competitive teams in the SEC. He has won but 1 SEC game in 2 seasons, and we don't play that team this season.
• Yes, Arnett is back, but he hasn't been a defensive coordinator since 2022, and then he had Mike Leach's offense helping him by playing keep away with the ball.
• Komario may prove to be the QB we want him to be, but so far he has lost both games he has started, has taken a beating, and has been susceptible to injury. Certainly he can throw the ball a long way, but can he become a highly accurate passer? He's a talented runner, but do we really want him running the ball a lot?!? 
• We have some talent coming back at receiver, but we lost our most dangerous one in Brenen Thompson to the NFL. 
• So far under Lebby we haven't had a dependable starter at TE, and the only guys on the roster are guys who played behind one whose production lagged behind his hype. 
• After years of having fearsome running backs those in recent years have been no more than serviceable. (Granted it was hard to really tell what we had in the Air Raid.) Early last season Fluff looked to be in the old 'Dog mold, but after taking beatings behind a lackluster OL, he was often banged up and not particularly effective. To be fair, when tacklers hit the back the instant he actually gets the ball in his hands, not fumbling and surviving to play the next play are probably laudable feats.
• Unfortunately, like Missouri, we State fans are in a "Show Me" state. We were told when he was hired that Lebby was an old offensive lineman, so he'd have a good offensive line. And as an offensive guru, he surely knows that the OL is the key to success for the QB and backs. However, we were weak on the OL in year 1 ... so we replaced the OL coach and hired lots of big guys from the portal. In year 2 we were perhaps marginally better, but still got our QB and RB's battered. Now we've mined the portal and signed 8 big, supposedly SEC quality O linemen. Okaaaay. Don't tell me; show me.
• As for the DL, see the above for the OL. We knew we had to be better, reloaded with a new crop of Hessian DL's, maybe hit on one (Whitson), who promptly got hurt in the second game and missed the rest of the season. Again we've reloaded with lots of big boys. Again, show me.
• As for the LB's, it seems reasonable to have some hope. Guys like Tillman, Gullette, Lockhart, and Smith showed flashes of adequacy, if not brilliance. Arnett and Brock have shown before right here in Starkvegas that they can develop productive LB's. Barring one or more finding Clark Kent's transformative phone booth, I don't think there's a D.D. Lewis, Johnnie Cooks, K.J. Wright, or Benardrick McKinney in the group, but perhaps if the DL is just okay, one or more LB's can shine. 🙏
• As has been the case for several years, last season we had a couple of NFL quality DB's in Jones at CB and Smith at safety. Somehow teams figured out how to throw away from them and found gaps that could be exploited, all too often deep. Can we find at least an average CB on the other side and 1 or 2 more safeties who can defend the run and pass? 
• And finally, the schedule.  Who besides ULM and TN Tech will we be favored to beat? We play Minnesota and South Carolina on the road, and Lebby's 2 Bulldog teams amassed a grand total of 1 road win over a Group of 4 team. We have Auburn and Vandy at Davis Wade, but what do we know about Auburn other than all of the prognosticators have them ranked ahead of us in the SEC? And Vandy seems to have stopped acting like Vandy lately. The other 3 SEC teams we play at home are picked to be in the Top 25 nationally. Road games?  LSU, Texas, and Ole Miss ... hard to find one of those in which we won't be a heavy underdog. One set of geniuses who sets the over/under on wins has set our 'Dogs at 4.9 wins and the other 4.5, with both setting the SEC O/U at 2.2. So who should we realistically expect to upset?

And me, you say?

It has taken me almost 70 years of watching the Bulldogs play football to get to the point in which I generally recognize the difference in how I hope the season turns out and how I think it will. I've drunk the maroon Kool-Aid and donned the maroon-tinted glasses for decades ... I've had some joy and my fair share of disappointments and heartaches. In fact, a few weeks ago I found myself wondering just how many State games I had seen live and in person. The answer, should you be curious, to the best of my ability to recall is 376. And of those for which I've been present, the Maroons/Bulldogs have won 51.06%, a figure inflated by the fact that I've lived in Starkville as a student or employee of MSU for 42 years and have attended practically every home game during that time. Of course, Scott Field/Davis Wade Stadium is where we have almost always played our games against "cupcakes," as the late Al McGuire called the opponents a team scheduled because they know they should be able to walk out on the field or court and beat them. As I've acknowledged in the blog in past years, however, I've seen us flattened by cupcakes on occasion; but usually the 'Dogs have prevailed. Certainly the number (figure 1 or 2 per season) of home cupcake games have artificially inflated my win percentage of State games I've watched. The percentage of wins in neutral site games I've seen, e.g., Jackson and non-Memphis State games in Memphis, and in away games is much, much lower, as is the percentage of road games. Let's wind this digression up by just saying that through the years I no longer live and die on fall Saturdays based on the outcome of games played by much younger men, some of whom may actually be real college students.

Back to the task at hand ... here's what I expect from Bulldog football for this year:

• Schedule - I think we'll be better than 2 of the nonconference teams we play (ULM and TN Tech) and that we'll be considerably less talented than 6 of our SEC opponents (Mizzou, UAT, LSU, OU, Texas, and TSUN). The season will be decided in games against teams that are generally expected to be marginally better than us (Minn., S. Carolina, Vandy, and Auburn), and we play the latter 2 at home. We may be a slightly more talented team than last year, but I'm afraid it will be hard for us to improve on last year's record ... or perhaps to equal it. 

• Coaching - Although his team improved from Year 1 to Year 2, it's hard for me to believe that Lebby will suddenly blossom into a Spurrier or even a Kiffin (with a conscience and an ego bypass, of course). Would we settle for a Drinkwitz or a Beamer (Shane, not his dad!)? I think the Arnett hire was a good move. Is having a staff laden with a slew of former head coaches a good idea? Maybe ... or will too many cooks spoil the stew?  TBD.
• Offense - The acid test will be whether the O line has improved noticeably. If Komario doesn't get injured and has enough time to settle in and improve as a passer, yes. Otherwise the season could be a disaster. I expect us to be able to move the ball better than we did last year, but not by much.
• Defense - Here's where I think we badly need to improve, and I think we can. Again the key will be the line. I like our LB's and secondary, but someone has to control the other guys' running game (i.e., no Skattebo in '24 or Hardy in '25 games in which we are trampled) and put some pressure on the opposing QB. Against the better teams last year we too often did neither. 
• Special teams - No idea about the return game, although I'm not aware of a Tulu or Zavion lurking around in Maroon & White. But I feel very good about Ferrie and Pulliam booting the ball. Our only fear would come if we didn't have a capable deep snapper.

Sooo ... bottom line? The season will be decided early. We have to beat either Minnesota or S. Carolina on the road early. Winning both would be huge, as the upset of AZ State was last year. Then somehow we have to keep the wheels from falling off in the 5 game stretch from Mizzou to UAT to @LSU to OU to @TX. If we can "be all we can be" there may be a wild puncher's chance for an upset in there, but there are also real chances to be on the receiving end of some blowouts. If we could somehow hold it together and beat Vandy and Auburn here toward the end, who knows what might happen? I know ... I know ... we're State fans, so would expect that we almost make the Playoffs, and Lebby is hired away by Clemson or such and takes Komario with him! 😖😢

I have to admit that at this minute today I am more afraid a scenario will unfold in which we are competitive but lose to both the Golden Gophers and Carolina Chickens on the road, then lose most or all (and get hammered in a couple) of that murderous 5 game early stretch against ranked teams. If that -- or anything close to it -- happens, I think the natives get restless, and out of fear of the money drying up (NIL and ticket sales) and message boards melting down, we fire Lebby before homecoming and move to our 3rd coach in 5 years, leaving "the program" smoldering. Ergo, my theme song for the season featuring Mississippi's own King https://youtube.com/shorts/zuPDqFwTPho?si=kuoeyb4VXaLG9a7b . What in the eyes of decision-makers, the fan base, and new recruits will mean State is "getting better" to keep the coach? 6 or more wins and a legitimate bowl?  The same 5 - 7 record but doubling or (dare I say it?!) tripling the number of SEC wins? In the megabuck portal/NIL/Playoff era I just don't expect that us to believe we can afford to continue to show patience (and the Indiana aberration of from worst to first has added to that), and feel forced to ignore the bitter truth that things can be worse. Just because all of us want it to be better doesn't mean it will be. Although I'm not a huge fan of Lebby, I recall living through seasons when we were so bad that media following SEC rivals used to joke about the "annual changing of the coaches at Miss. State." So I want him to improve, learn, and grow with us. That's hoping, however, not necessarily believing. Consequently I look ahead to 2026 with a little excitement and a good deal of dread ... and a fervent hope that I'm misguided on several points.

We'll see. Show us!  And Hail, State!!

*I've borrowed the title for the blog for this season from a 2002 historical book Sink or Be Sunk! by Paul Estronza La Violette, a former MS Gulf Coast resident and oceanographer for ... ahem ... Miss. State University. It's about the naval battle that took place in the Gulf of Mexico from Sept. 1814 - Feb. 1815 preceding the Battle of New Orleans. In the battle a young American lieutenant led a force of 5 small gunboats and 2 even smaller support ships against an armada of 45 Royal British Navy ships of war and 40 barges built to transport troops who had been temporarily quartered on Ship and Cat Islands in the Miss Sound. His orders, which were literally the title of LaViolette's book and this blog, designed to harass and impede the progress of the British force as they moved from the barrier islands to attack New Orleans near Chalmette. They faithfully carried out their orders.